NJ Weather: Thunderstorms, Rain Expected for Next 4 Days

New Jersey residents should prepare for a wet week ahead as forecasters predict four consecutive days of rainfall and potential thunderstorms beginning Tuesday evening. The persistent precipitation comes after several weeks of unseasonably dry conditions that had begun to raise concerns about potential drought conditions in parts of the state, according to NJ.com.

Meteorologists are tracking a slow-moving weather system that will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with some potentially producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, and localized flooding in poor drainage areas. While the rain will alleviate dry conditions, it may disrupt outdoor activities and commutes throughout the workweek.

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Timing and Intensity of Rainfall

According to the National Weather Service Mount Holly office, the precipitation will arrive in waves rather than as a continuous rainfall event. The first round is expected to begin Tuesday evening with scattered showers developing after 8 p.m., followed by more organized rainfall overnight into Wednesday morning.

“This won’t be a constant deluge, but rather a series of rain events with breaks in between,” explained Sarah Johnson, meteorologist at the National Weather Service. “The most significant rainfall will likely occur on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, when thunderstorms have the highest probability of development.”

Total rainfall amounts are projected to range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches across most of the state, with localized higher amounts possible in areas that experience training thunderstorms. According to New Jersey 101.5, some models indicate the potential for isolated areas to receive up to 4 inches of rain if storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

Flood Risk Assessment

While the extended period of rainfall has prompted concerns about potential flooding, forecasters note that the state’s recent dry conditions should help mitigate widespread flood risks. However, urban areas with significant impervious surfaces and regions with poor drainage may still experience localized flooding.

“The good news is that our rivers, streams, and reservoirs have capacity to absorb this rainfall given the recent dry spell,” said Robert Davis, hydrologist with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. “However, we’ll be monitoring conditions closely, particularly in areas that receive higher rainfall totals or experience intense downpours.”

Flash flood guidance from the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center indicates that it would take approximately 2-3 inches of rain within a three-hour period to trigger flash flooding in most areas. The risk increases for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, particularly in urban settings and along smaller streams.

Temperature and Humidity Changes

The weather pattern will also bring significant changes to temperature and humidity levels across the state. After Monday’s pleasant conditions featuring low humidity and temperatures in the mid-70s, residents can expect increasing mugginess as the week progresses.

“We’ll see a substantial increase in humidity levels beginning Tuesday afternoon as the warm front lifts north,” Johnson noted. “Dew points will climb into the mid-60s, creating that sticky, uncomfortable feeling that’s typical of late spring in New Jersey.”

Daytime high temperatures will generally range from the mid-70s to low 80s throughout the wet period, with overnight lows remaining in the 60s due to the increased humidity and cloud cover. Meteorologist Mike Sanders told News 12 New Jersey that these temperatures are slightly above normal for mid-May but typical for the unsettled pattern moving through the region.

Drought Concerns Alleviated

The extended rainfall event comes as a welcome relief for agricultural interests and water resource managers who had been monitoring increasingly dry conditions across the state. While New Jersey has not been placed under any official drought designations, precipitation deficits had been growing in recent weeks.

“This rain event should effectively eliminate any short-term drought concerns,” said Catherine Wilson, climate scientist at Rutgers University. “We’ve been running about 25-30% below normal rainfall for the past month, so this will help replenish soil moisture just as the growing season is accelerating.”

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection reports that reservoir levels across the state remain at satisfactory levels at 89% capacity, but groundwater and stream flow measurements had been declining. The anticipated rainfall should reverse those trends and provide adequate moisture for the upcoming summer months.

Weekend Outlook

Current forecasts suggest that the unsettled pattern will begin to move out of the region late Friday, with conditions gradually improving for the weekend. However, forecasters caution that some uncertainty remains regarding how quickly the system will exit.

“Saturday morning may still see some lingering showers, particularly in southern New Jersey,” Johnson explained. “However, we expect conditions to improve significantly by Saturday afternoon with decreasing clouds and humidity.”

Sunday currently looks to be the pick of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures returning to the region. High temperatures should reach the mid-70s with noticeably lower humidity levels, providing favorable conditions for outdoor activities.

“After a soggy workweek, the weekend should provide a nice opportunity to get outside and enjoy some sunshine,” concluded Johnson. “Just be prepared to deal with some muddy conditions in parks and recreational areas following all the rain.”