Presidential Crypto Defies Gravity Despite $2 Billion Wipeout

The official Trump memecoin has managed to defy market expectations by posting modest gains following a massive token unlock that many analysts predicted would trigger a catastrophic collapse.

Despite already losing 88% of its value since January and wiping out an estimated $2 billion in investor capital, the politically-themed cryptocurrency has displayed surprising resilience in the face of what should have been a fatal supply shock.

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The Weekend That Defied Predictions

Financial media had been predicting disaster for TRUMP token holders as April 18 approached, with headlines warning of an impending crisis: “HUGE Token Unlock Will Rock TRUMP’s Price to the Core” and “Trump Memecoin ‘Unlock’ Raises Risk of Further Slide of Once-Hot Token.” The catalyst was the scheduled release of 40 million new tokens worth approximately $320 million – representing a 20% increase in circulating supply, according to NewsBreak.

Instead of crashing, the token’s price increased by 9% in the 24 hours following the unlock. This surprising resilience appears to stem from the fact that Trump-owned businesses control approximately 80% of the newly released tokens, creating a situation where the primary beneficiaries have little incentive to immediately sell and crash their own asset.

From $13 Billion to Catastrophe

The short-term stability does little to offset the token’s catastrophic performance since its January launch. TRUMP debuted with tremendous enthusiasm on Inauguration Day, reaching a staggering $13 billion market capitalization within days. Since then, it has experienced a devastating 90% devaluation, with prices falling from over $71 to around $8.40 currently.

“The president and his team of advisers have already gotten richer off the $TRUMP coin, making a reported $100 million in fees alone even as the people who bought into the project lost over $2 billion in value since the coin’s high earlier this year,” according to analysis from New York Magazine.

The losses have primarily affected retail investors, with on-chain data revealing that while there are approximately 636,000 TRUMP token holders, only 12,285 wallets contain more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency. This distribution pattern suggests that financial damage has been concentrated among smaller investors rather than large institutional players.

Dangerous Waters Ahead for Investors

Despite avoiding immediate collapse, TRUMP token holders face treacherous market conditions going forward. The token’s liquidity remains dangerously thin, with market data indicating that just $1.3 million in trading volume could move the price by 2% on major exchanges.

This liquidity crisis becomes even more concerning when considering the ongoing token release schedule. April 18’s unlock represents just the beginning of substantial inflation pressure, with approximately 4.1 million additional TRUMP coins scheduled for daily release continuing until mid-2028, according to CoinDesk.

The daily release schedule will add approximately 493,150 TRUMP coins to the foundational team’s holdings each day, potentially creating persistent selling pressure if these tokens are moved to exchanges. This extended distribution schedule means that the recent unlock, while significant, represents just a fraction of the total supply that will eventually enter circulation.

The Political Wild Card

What makes TRUMP uniquely unpredictable is its association with political events and presidential actions. Traders anticipate potential short-term price pumps triggered by bullish political developments, such as the recently announced 90-day global tariff pause, though these temporary rallies have done little to offset the overall downward trend.

Social media has been buzzing with unverified rumors about a possible event for large token holders supposedly being organized by President Trump himself. While these claims remain purely speculative, they highlight the unprecedented dynamic where cryptocurrency markets now respond not just to technical factors but to political personalities and policy decisions.

Despite its enormous losses and challenging tokenomics, TRUMP remains the fourth-largest memecoin with a market capitalization of $1.67 billion. Whether this represents the start of a sustainable recovery or merely a temporary reprieve before further decline remains to be seen, as investors continue navigating the volatile intersection of cryptocurrency speculation and presidential politics.

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